Dive into the weeds of our new Harris-Trump model. For 2024, 538 has built a new presidential election forecast model. This article explains how we did it: the ingredients that go into the forecast, ...

A month before the presidential election, Prof. Peter Enns, government, published a model with three other researchers that would correctly predict the results for all 50 U.S. states. Besides ...

The forecasts, like those from Decision Desk HQ, Nate Silver and 538, are now ubiquitous, but their accuracy is hard to measure. By Kaleigh Rogers Kaleigh Rogers has been covering election polling ...

Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election. States certified the results and Congress accepted the results. Election security officials — including Republicans and people in President Donald Trump’s ...