Trump keeps Canada guessing
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Canada’s apparent tariff advantage is also born out in U.S. Customs and Border Protection numbers that track IEEPA tariff revenue by country. For Canada, the revenue collected so far is equal to just 1.6. per cent of total exports to the U.S., compared with 3.5 per cent for Mexico, although this doesn’t account for sectoral tariff revenues.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reminded us of an important but little-discussed part of trade negotiations with Canada and Mexico -- "virtually 75%" of trade between the U.S. and its two neighbors is "already tariff free" because of the USMCA agreement.
The economy was supposed to crumble. The trade war was expected to escalate out of control. Markets were forecast to plunge. None of that has happened. But Trump’s early trade victory may be short-lived.
The United States’ decision to impose steep tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico is likely to have a muted impact on cross-border trade, BofA says, thanks to exemptions preserved under the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement).
President Sheinbaum and Canada PM Carney have agreed to strengthen Mexico-Canada trade relations in light of US tariff threats.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has announced that President Donald Trump plans to renegotiate the USMCA in 2026. This decision aligns with the agreement's scheduled review, aiming to enhance American economic interests and protect domestic jobs.
The USMCA, while imperfect, is overall a positive development for Canada. It has a number of structural elements that may very well leave us stronger when negotiating trade pacts in the future.
NMPF and USDEC took center stage as they testified before the U.S. International Trade Commission. Their message was clear: The U.S. government must take decisive steps to hold trading partners accountable.