A methodological change contributed to a better-than-expected inflation report, prompting questions from some economists. By Ben Casselman An obscure methodological change lowered a key measure of ...

Fire and smoke rise into the sky after an Israeli attack on the Shahran oil depot on June 15, 2025 in Tehran, Iran. Iran's foreign minister said the country would respond "decisively and ...

At 60 with $500,000 saved, you are closer to a workable retirement income than most people realize. The math is concrete, the variables are manageable, and the biggest decision you will make has ...

Inflation in January, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, was close to forecasters' expectations. Inflation rose 2.8% over the year and the "core" measure excluding food and ...

As feared, the two concerns that we highlighted on Wednesday only intensified through Thursday – the two problem children of higher US break-even inflation rates and higher US swap spreads. First, the ...

Market-based expectations for near-term price gains were rising as of Thursday. As the war in the Middle East deepened on Thursday, an important Wall Street gauge was reflecting the kind of inflation ...

One glaring market reaction to the war headlines has been the sell-off in US government long-term bonds, pushing yields like ...

Wednesday's inflation report was not able to capture the impact of recently higher fuel costs. The April 10 report on ...

But US breakeven inflation and swap spreads are on the march wider. Not great. In the eurozone, the 10Y swap rate is heading ...

The Iran War has closed the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, creating a dual-chokepoint crisis that is driving ...

Investors are now seriously considering the possibility that war in the Middle East could create a stagflationary shock, just as it did 50 years ago.

Short-dated bonds are the most sensitive. In Britain, two-year gilt yields have shot up by nearly 50 basis points in the last ...